The Twitter thread Abby was referring to is here: https://twitter.com/wchanley/status/1012726935284277249
The data I'm using is from CNN (the exit polling), and Politico (for the 2016 state-by-state vote): https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
If you don't want to go through the Twitter thread, here's the condensed version of my argument:
Exit Polling (CNN): 9% of Democrats in Michigan voted for Trump 7% of Democrats in Wisconsin voted for Trump 11% of Democrats in Pennsylvania voted for Trump
There were about 9x as many crossover Democrats voting for Trump than there were Jill Stein votes in total. But, of course, we never talk about the Dems running an awful campaign that ceded 2012 Obama voters to the Republican, so let's blame Green Party voters, Jill Stein, and Susan Sarandon instead.
is there a link to the study of yours that Abby refers to in the pod (% of registered dems in midwest voting Trump)? thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteHi Bart,
ReplyDeleteThe Twitter thread Abby was referring to is here:
https://twitter.com/wchanley/status/1012726935284277249
The data I'm using is from CNN (the exit polling), and Politico (for the 2016 state-by-state vote):
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
https://www.politico.com/mapdata-2016/2016-election/results/map/president/
If you don't want to go through the Twitter thread, here's the condensed version of my argument:
Exit Polling (CNN):
9% of Democrats in Michigan voted for Trump
7% of Democrats in Wisconsin voted for Trump
11% of Democrats in Pennsylvania voted for Trump
Politico:
Wis: 47.9% Trump, 46.9% Clinton, Stein 1.1%
Mich: 47.6% Trump, 47.3% Clinton, Stein 1.1%
Penn: 48.8% Trump, 47.6% Clinton, Stein 0.8%
There were about 9x as many crossover Democrats voting for Trump than there were Jill Stein votes in total. But, of course, we never talk about the Dems running an awful campaign that ceded 2012 Obama voters to the Republican, so let's blame Green Party voters, Jill Stein, and Susan Sarandon instead.